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Miami Condo Market Update: Closing sales in Jan lowest year after year in the last 10 years.

The Miami-Dade County condo and townhome market has been one of the most dynamic in the United States, with significant fluctuations in both supply and demand over the years. However, recent data indicate a slowdown in sales in the Miami condo and townhome market. This has left prospective sellers wondering whether they should sell now or wait. One significant factor contributing to the slowdown is the rise in interest rates in the past year, making it harder for buyers to afford. Additionally, prices have continued to increase, adding to the challenges for buyers. This article analyzes recent data on the Miami-Dade County condo and townhome market.


Where do you think the Miami condo market is heading in 2023?

  • 0%The market is going to be more balanced market.

  • 0%The market is going to crash, prices will drop significantly

  • 0%The market will continue to favor sellers.


Disclosure: This article is solely based on the provided statistics and is an opinion of a real estate agent. The data is intended to help readers understand the current state of the Miami-Dade County condo and townhome market. I encourage readers to conduct their due diligence and not solely rely on the statistics presented in this article. It is important to remember that while statistics can provide valuable insights, they do not always tell the whole story of a real estate market.


Closed sales for the month of January reach it's lowest in the last 10 years, what does this mean for 2023?

Month

Closed Sales

Jan 2023

809

Jan 2022

1,637

Jan 2021

​1,243

Jan 2020

970

Jan 2019

833

Jan 2018

​945

Jan 2017

​874

Jan 2016

​969

Jan 2015

1,075

Jan 2014

1,261

It's difficult to predict with certainty what the low closed sales for January 2023 mean for the rest of the year, as the real estate market can be affected by unpredictable factors. However, the low number of closed sales in January 2023 may suggest a slow start to the year for Miami's condo market. Closed sales in January of 2023, the lowest in the last ten years, can be due to a few reasons, such as mortgage rates being much higher than in January last year. Interest rates are currently over 6% compared to less than 4% in January last year. The higher interest rates have shocked the hot market while prices continue to increase.

This could continue throughout the year, or there may be a rebound in the coming months. New Pending Sales for January 2023 are at 1,314, the highest since September 2022 at 1,361, which may point to a rebound in closed sales. Interest rate hikes are expected to slow down, which may cause mortgage rates to decrease slightly this year. It is essential to monitor the market closely to see how it develops throughout the year.



Some metrics from Jan 2018 to 2023

​Metric

Jan 2023

Jan 2022

Jan 2021

Jan 2020

​Jan 2019

Jan 2018

​Closed Sales

​846

1,026

​1,160

1,207

​1,150

1,029

Pending Sales

1,647

2,083

1,917

1,925

1,802

1,598

​Cash Sales

208

301

398

366

337

315

Months of Inventory

​4.4

3.3

3.8

6.2

6.7

6.1

Avg. Sales Price

​$390,000

$375,000

​$350,000

$348,000

​$330,000

​$315,000

Median % of Original List Price

95.1%

94.3%

​94.3%

93.4%

93.5%

92.9%

​Active Inventory

​6,805

​5,908

12,608

​14,902

16,518

15,573

Red represents decrease and Green represents increase in comparing Jan 2023 and Jan 2022.


Closed Sales

Townhomes and Condos: Jan 2013 to Jan 2023

Miami-Dade Condo and Townhomes closed sales from Jan 2013 to Jan 2023

The data shows the number of closed sales of townhouses and condos in Miami-Dade County for all price tiers and all sale types from January 2013 to January 2023. The number of closed sales had been showing an upward trend until the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, since the pandemic, the housing market in Miami-Dade County has been volatile, with varying levels of growth and decline.


Despite the initial shock to the market in 2020, the number of closed sales rebounded relatively quickly, reaching its peak in March 2021 (2,201), April 2021 (2,376), and June 2021 (2,515). This trend indicates that the housing market in Miami-Dade County was resilient and able to bounce back from the pandemic's effects.


However, this upward trend continued for a short time. Since May 2021, closed sales have decreased, with a particularly steep decline in August and September 2021. This recent decline suggests that the Miami-Dade County housing market may be cooling off after its post-pandemic boom.


One significant factor that contributed to the recent slowdown in the Miami-Dade County housing market is the rise in interest rates in the past year. At the same time, prices continue to increase, making it harder for buyers to afford. Condo buildings in Miami are also facing new condo reforms, which may impact the market. Condo associations face stricter and more frequent inspections. Starting in 2024, condo associations must conduct a structural integrity reserve study at least every ten years. The new condo reforms may bring additional costs in the form of association fees and special assessments, affecting the buyers' ability to purchase a condo.



Pending Sales

Townhomes and Condos: Jan 2013 to Jan 2023

Miami Dade pending sales for condos from Jan 2013 to Jan 2023

Although new pending sales dropped from 3,089 in March 2021 to 1,314 in January 2023, this figure is still relatively high compared to previous years. This trend suggests that there is still a strong demand for townhouses and condos in Miami-Dade County and that the market may stabilize and potentially rebound.



Average Sale Price

Townhomes and Condos: Jan 2013 to Jan 2023


The average sale price of townhouses and condos in Miami-Dade County, FL, has fluctuated significantly over the past decade. The prices peaked in March 2022, reaching an all-time high of $759,929.00, then decreased to $668,147.00 in January 2023, which is typically a slower month in the year. However, it is worth noting that the current average sales price is still higher compared to the pre-pandemic levels.


Cash Sales

Townhomes and Condos: Jan 2013 to Jan 2023

Miami-Dade Cash sales for Townhomes and Condos: Jan 2013 to Jan 2023

Since August 2022, cash sales of townhouses and condos in Miami-Dade County have been steadily declining. The number of cash sales decreased from 696 in August 2022 to 435 in January 2023, representing a decline of nearly 37%.


Why are cash sales declining?

One reason may be that Miami saw an influx of buyers from other parts of the country paying cash for their condos, which may be cooling off. The amount of cash deals are comparable to January 2020 (450), which was right before the US was affected by the pandemic, and January 2019 (426). Another reason for the decline in cash sales could be the increase in property prices, making it more difficult for buyers to purchase a property without a mortgage.



Months Supply of Inventory

Townhomes and Condos: Jan 2013 to Jan 2023

Miami-Dade County: Months Supply of Inventory Townhouses and Condos Jan 2013 to Jan 2023

The data shows that the monthly supply of inventory for townhouses and condos in Miami-Dade County has decreased since the pandemic's peak. As of January 2023, the month's supply of inventory stands at 4.4, which is still lower than the supply levels in the years before the pandemic. This suggests there is still high demand for properties in this market, which could drive up prices in the short term.


Overall, the data suggest that the Miami-Dade County townhouse and condo market has been strong in favor of sellers since the pandemic, with supply often falling below six months. However, there has been a slight increase in supply recently, indicating a possible shift towards a more balanced market.



Median Percent of Original List Price

Townhomes and Condos: Jan 2013 to Jan 2023


The metric measures the percentage of the original list price that sellers received when their property was sold.


Looking at the median percent of original list price data in Miami-Dade County for townhouses and condos, we can see that the percentage was at its highest during the summer of 2022, with 99.8% in June 2022 and 99.0% in July 2022 and 100% in August 2022.


However, it has since decreased, with a percentage of 95.1% in January 2023. Overall, the trend shows an increase in the percentage over the past several years, with a significant jump in 2021 and peaking in the summer of 2022. With the market colling off, sellers are still selling at a higher percentage of their asking price than pre-pandemic but lower than the peaking months.



Active Inventory

Townhomes and Condos: Jan 2013 to Jan 2023


Active listings have steadily increased since the lowest level of 4,711 in April 2022. Still, active listings have remained significantly lower than during the pandemic and even lower than pre-pandemic levels.





Should Miami condo owners sell?

The decision to sell a condo in Miami ultimately depends on the seller's circumstances and priorities. However, based on the current state of the market, there are some factors to consider.


First, it's important to note that the Miami condo market has been experiencing a slowdown in recent months, with declining sales and increasing inventory. Additionally, rising interest rates and prices may make it harder for buyers to afford a condo, leading to more extended time to sell and lower sale prices.

On the other hand, many potential buyers are still interested in purchasing a condo in Miami, particularly with the city's desirable location and warm weather. Additionally, while the market may have cooled off from its recent highs, prices are still higher than in the years leading up to the pandemic. Although closed sales have declined, pending sales show a good sign for closed sales in February.


Condo owners who are considering selling should evaluate their circumstances and priorities. Suppose a quick sale is a top priority. In that case, it may be beneficial to price the condo competitively to attract potential buyers. On the other hand, if the owner is willing to wait for the right offer, they may benefit from holding off on selling until more favorable seasonal months.


It's essential to remember that the condo market in Miami-Dade County seasonally experiences a slowdown during the fall and winter months. Typically, sales pick up in the spring, during Q2, and again in the winter during Q4. Therefore, if condo owners are considering selling, they should consider the market's seasonality and wait until spring or winter quarters for optimal market conditions.


Another thing to remember is that the new condo reforms in Miami may also impact the market, potentially leading to additional costs for condo owners and affecting the overall demand for condos in the city. Condo owners considering selling should also factor in these potential costs and market changes when deciding.


In summary, whether or not condo owners should sell now or wait ultimately depends on their circumstances, priorities, and willingness to wait for the right offer. If you're thinking about listing your condo for sale or rent in the greater Miami area learn more about my services.

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